I’m taking a break this week from statistical analysis to review my league’s draft which we did on Saturday, hoping for the MLB to resume at some point. In the past, I’ve written about draft strategy, so I stuck with my guns, used my customized Excel draft board, and got to work. I am mostly happy with my team. There were some mid-round picks I’m not happy with, but for the most part, I’m glad I was able to follow my strategy and field a (hopefully) winning team.
First, let me give you some details about my league. We are an 8 team league, which many people will scoff at and say things like, “Every team must be a super team!” or “Is it even competitive?” And I always say yes – in fact because every team is full of good players, it makes it more difficult because anyone can win any week. It’s also much harder to let players go for waiver adds because everyone on your team is solid. There are definitely bonuses to playing in smaller leagues. Each team also gets 4 keepers to hold over into the following year. There are no limits to how long you can own your players. And in the draft, the keepers are automatically populated on our rosters for the first 4 rounds. The draft order is the reverse order of the final standings from the year before, so the worst record from the previous year drafts first. I was the third pick in this year’s draft.
My keepers were Bellinger (who ESPN Fantasy let me keep at 1B surprisingly…they often slot the player into their first listed position if it’s a player eligible at multiple positions), Yelich, Trea Turner, and Rendon (who I traded for a week before the draft, giving up Springer, Bieber, and Bogaerts to acquire him). I was anticipating Bellinger being forced into an outfield slot by ESPN, so I had been going about my mock drafts under that assumption, selecting 1B with my first pick out of the keeper rounds. I had been targeting Anthony Rizzo, who ended up going in round 6 (2 rounds after the keeper rounds). My first pick was Jose Altuve, who I’m counting on to have a solid average and hit for some power. His counting stats have been declining, but he’s still VERY good. In order, the picks in the first non-keeper round went Jose Ramirez, Verlander, Altuve, Strasburg, Machado, Albies, Yordan Alvarez, Clevinger.
The next round followed with Goldschmidt, Meadows, Corbin, Rizzo, Luis Castillo, Morton (my pick), Judge, and Ketel Marte. My thought in selecting Morton was that I needed a stud pitcher, someone to lock down my rotation and give me good ERA and strikeouts, especially after locking down my infield. I love Luis Castillo, so I was disappointed to see him go there. I’d have picked him ahead of Morton. I also had Corbin high on my draft list, but I’m happy with Morton. In terms of my fellow managers, I had Rizzo higher ranked than Goldy, so that pick surprised me a little. And I think the team that selected Marte was going with outfield there no matter what, and was hoping Meadows fell to them, so Marte may have been a little bit of a reach. He did have the wrap-around picks (snake draft), and got Kershaw with the first pick in round 7, so that was a solid job.
Rounds 7-8 followed with Kershaw, Villar, Gallo (my pick), Vlad Jr., Snell, Josh Bell, Olson, Ozuna, Paddack, Eloy Jimenez, Stanton, Rosario, Abreu, Pham (my pick), Cruz, and Hiura. I have never drafted Joey Gallo before, and it could be risky if his batting average plummets again, but he looked like he changed something in his approach last year before getting hurt. He was having a ridiculously good season, and that’s the Gallo I’m hoping for in 2020. I also wanted to start filling in my outfield positions, and my strategy this year is to win the 3 power stats for batting each week, even if it means sacrificing some average. Gallo helps with that (although my team batting average could be buoyed by guys like Rendon, Altuve, and Yelich, among others). I considered going pitcher instead of outfield, but didn’t like anyone available at the time – Snell’s range of outcomes is too wide, and Paddack won’t get me the strikeouts I want. Then I went Pham with my pick in round 8. He has 20/20 potential, which I like. He’s in a good lineup in San Diego. I like him more than Castellanos, who was also available, and although Eugenio Suarez and Matt Chapman were available, I went for a player at a position I needed to fill, rather than adding another corner infielder.
Rounds 9-10: Castellanos, Nola, Greinke (my pick), Moncada, Matt Chapman, Giolito, Merrifield, Eugenio Suarez, Hader, Mondesi, LeMahieu, Kirby Yates, Tim Anderson, Darvish (my pick), Realmuto, Semien. I was going back to back pitching here no matter what. My plan this year was to draft a lot of stud relievers and attempt to win Saves, ERA, and WHIP each week, so I wanted to get to more solid starters here before drafting my relievers and the rest of my bats. My hope was that Giolito would last until round 10, where I’d been selecting him in mock drafts, but that wasn’t the case here. In hindsight, I wish I had drafted Giolito in round 9 instead of Greinke. I’m happy with Darvish in 10, though. He started to turn it on in the second half last year, and despite one extremely rocky start last season, he was pretty good. Between him and Greinke, my hope was to balance out strikeouts and ERA. In round 10, we also had our firsts – the first reliever and catcher were selected (Hader and Realmuto). There were a couple of picks here I think are risky. LeMahieu has been consistently one of the best hitters for batting average year after year, but last season his power numbers spiked. It will be interesting to see if it was a one year aberration like what has happened with Elvis Andrus, among others, or if it was the real deal. Still, I would haven’t have drafted him there. Muncy, Moustakas, and Lux were all available, and I think they could all end up being ranked higher than LeMahieu at the end of the season. I also thought Tim Anderson was a risky selection. He had a good statistical season last year, but I’ve written about how the sabermetric data doesn’t back it up at all. He could be absolutely terrible this season if the ball doesn’t bounce his way. Correa, Semien, Seager, and DeJong were all available, and I think all will be better than him this year.
11-14: Bauer, Soler, Aroldis Chapman (my pick), Gary Sanchez, McNeil, Muncy, Woodruff, Jansen, Moustakas, Bichette, Conforto, Glasnow, Ohtani, Osuna (my pick), Correa, Benintendi, Carrasco, Brantley, Liam Hendricks (my pick), Victor Robles, Schwarber, Hoskins, Luzardo, Taylor Rogers, Sano, Berrios, Kluber, Franmil Reyes, Lynn, Laureano (my pick), Eduardo Escobar, Carlos Santana. I think my strategy was obvious here. I wanted to snag some of the top relievers and I did so with Chapman, Osuna, and Hendricks. I got another potential 20/20 bat for my outfield in Ramon Laureano. And through 14 rounds, I feel really good about my team. I still needed to fill another outfield slot, my utility slot, catcher, middle infield, and corner infield, but I was in a good position. A lot of players I like were taken in these rounds. Loved the Soler pick…Muncy, Woodruff, Glasnow, Correa, Brantley, Robles, Hoskins, Luzardo, Reyes, Lynn, and Escobar I thought were all drafted appropriately. Luzardo was a great snag – he could be lights out for Oakland. Lynn has a lot of upside after what he did last season. Franmil Reyes was another great pick here in the mid-rounds. He has huge power potential. Glasnow and Woodruff have great pitching upside this year. Escobar I thought could have been drafted 3 or 4 rounds earlier and he would have been a great pick then. This was an excellent pick in round 14. Some picks I thought were not so great in these rounds were Bauer (who has really only had 1 good year), Bichette (who I think needs another year to grow before he is decent – he’s a batting average risk), Ohtani (I don’t understand the hype – gets injured a lot, and doesn’t do enough on either side of the ball to be good), and Schwarber (who I just have never gotten behind as a good fantasy player).
15-20: Edwin Encarnacion, Gray, Kepler (my pick), Lux, Hand, Montas, Nick Anderson, Grandal, Eaton, Yuli Gurriel, Luis Robert, Ray, Soroka, Corey Seager (my pick), Biggio, Giles, Raisel Iglesias, Cron, Edwin Diaz (my pick), Khris Davis, DeJong, Brian Anderson, Lourdes Gurriel, Gallegos, McCullers, Bryan Reynolds, Paxton, Pederson, Daniel Hudson, Justin Turner (my pick), Workman, Zack Wheeler, Will Smith (Catcher), Will Smith (reliever), Garver (my pick), Wong, Eduardo Rodriguez, Contreras, Neris, Hansel Robles, Civale, Dahl, Kingery, Salvy Perez, Yastrzemski, Lamet (my pick), JD Davis, Lorenzo Cain. I’m happy with Kepler completing my outfield (Yelich, Gallo, Pham, Laureano, Kepler – solid). I’m satisfied witih Seager filling my MI slot, and I got another high upside reliever in Edwin Diaz. Justin Turner was a panic pick for me. At the time, I still needed to fill my CI and UTIL slots, as well as catcher. Justin Turner has elite batted ball numbers, but can’t stay on the field, and is in a crowded and deep lineup in LA. Looking back, I’m wishing I had picked Garver instead of Turner, Eduardo Rodriguez in Garver’s slot, and then filled a bench role with someone else in round 20, saving the corner infield slot for Christian Walker, whom I took later. I’m okay with Lamet – I think he’s an ERA risk – but he has 200 strikeout potential in a normal season. Picks I love here: Lux, Hand, Gray (I’m going to attempt to trade for him – he’s one of my top sleeper candidates this year), Nick Anderson, Eaton, Robert (great timing for him – one of the best prospects in baseball taken in the last half of the draft = no risk), Robbie Ray (another player I’ll look at trading to get), DeJong, McCullers (I think he could be one of the best pitchers in baseball this year), Reynolds, Catcher Will Smith, Rodriguez, Civale, Cron, and JD Davis. I’m staying away from both Gurriels – Yuli because I believe he benefited greatly from the cheating ring in Houston, and Lourdes because I just haven’t seen enough from him in Toronto to trust him in a starting slot. Brian Anderson I think has potential, but the production just isn’t there and that Miami lineup isn’t going to help him much in that respect. Reliever Will Smith is also a risky pick because Melancon is also in Atlanta and who gets the saves there is a toss-up. That could turn out to basically be a wasted pick. I also was surprised to see Daniel Hudson get drafted – I think it’s more likely Doolittle gets significantly more saves in Washington. I also thought Yastrzemski was an odd pick there, but only because McCutcheon, Renfroe, and Mercado were all available too. I see them all finishing better than Yastrzemski.
21-25: Archie Bradley, Danny Santana, Leclerc (my pick), Britton, Kimbrel, Bumgarner, Julio Urias, Renfroe, Gregorius, Brandon Lowe, Fried, Matt Boyd, Doolittle, Christian Walker (my pick), Colome, McCutcheon, Ryu, Wilson Ramos, Renato Nunez (my pick), Howie Kendrick, Caleb Smith, Carlos Martinez, Maeda, Mallex Smith, Kela, McMahon, Mercado, Starlin Castro, Justin Upton, Hunter Dozier (my pick), Hosmer, David Price, McKay, Gallen, Odor (my pick), Givens, Daniel Murphy, Hampson, Christian Vazquez, Dickerson. A lot of the players selected in these rounds are dart throws, filling bench spots, that you hope pan out for you during the season. These late rounds are where you want to try to find high upside guys, or maybe even take some risks. In taking Leclerc and Odor, I’m taking risks. Leclerc could end up not being the closer in Texas, his ERA could spike, or both! Odor is a batting average risk to a point where he may be batting under the Mendoza line. Those two players could also turn out to be very good. Christian walker had elite batted ball numbers from last year, so I’m hoping he takes a leap forward in production this year. Renato Nunez was another panic pick as the time wound down on me. I’m wishing I had picked Kendrick, Castro, or Caleb Smith there. I loved the Bumgarner, Renfroe, Lowe, Boyd, Smith, Kendrick, Mercado, Castro, McKay, and Gallen picks from these rounds. Smith and Boyd my be risky in terms of ERA, but they’ll strike out 200 batters in a normal year. Gallen has a lot of upside in Arizona. And McKay is a two-way player that could actually be productive on both sides of the ball. I’ve written about Castro previously, and I think Mercado could hit 20/20 next year. Some picks I thought were a little too risky, even in the late rounds were Santana (who is a prime regression candidate for this year), Britton, Ryu, Mallex Smith, McMahon, and Hosmer.
The full team I ended up with is
C – Garver, 1B – Bellinger (OF), 2B – Altuve, 3B – Rendon, SS – T. Turner, MI – C. Seager, CI – J. Turner, OF – Yelich/Gallo/Pham/Laureano/Kepler, UTIL – C. Walker, SP – Morton/Greinke/Darvish/Lamet, RP – Chapman/Osuna/Hendricks/Diaz/Leclerc, Bench – Odor/Nunez/Dozier
I’d grade this as a solid A-, maybe a B+. I followed my strategy and ended in the top 3 in every power category, as well as the 3 pitching categories I targeted. I put myself in a good position to win each week. I think my bench could use some upgrading. I also need more positional flexibility. Aside from that, I’m pretty happy with how things turned out.
Next week, I’ll go over any updates to the league. I’ll also begin my series on pitching stats that I look for when scouting and how I factor those data points into my drop/add, start/sit, and trade decisions. Thanks for reading.
Taylor's Fantasy Baseball Blog 