So this week, I’m going to spend some time going through my do and do not draft players at each position. I want to give you a look at some players who I’m very interested in and some who I’m avoiding at all costs. I’m going to try to stay away from the obvious top tier players as my do draft players to give you some off the radar guys to target, or players that I’d be ok with reaching for. And as a disclaimer, the do not draft players are not necessarily just bad players. They might be players who, in my opinion, are going to be players who I expect to be picked earlier than I’m willing to pick them. Again, I’ll try to avoid the obvious – injured players or typically lousy players – to choose players to not draft who are just going too high.
Catcher
Do draft Mitch Garver. He had a breakout season in 2019. He hit 31 homers and batted .273, which are elite numbers for a catcher. But was he the real deal? First, look at his hard contact rate – 47% – and you see that it is excellent. He had really good LD/GB/FB numbers, and the HR/FB rate was 29%, which is legit. That means 29% of his fly balls went for home runs. His strikeout numbers were a little disappointing, but his BABIP was actually 30 points lower than his career BABIP, which actually shows there is room for improvement. This is a guy to reach for this year.
Do not draft Buster Posey. There’s a lot of name value here, and that is keeping him on people’s draft lists. But when you look at the data, you see a 36% hard contact rate. Nearly 50% of his hits are ground balls, and his HR/FB rate is 7%. These really don’t bode well for productive at bats. His strikeout rate was 16%, which was up about 5% from 2018, and his walk rate of 7% was down 2.5% from 2018. These are not good signs. He isn’t connecting with pitches outside of the zone – that rate has gone down from 80% to 67%, while his Swinging Strike rate of 8% is up 3% from last year. What I see from him is that he is losing a step, and I am not letting the name value lead me into drafting him.
First Base
Do draft C.J. Cron. This is going to be a really sneaky good pick in your draft, where your fellow players won’t be disappointed at the moment that you snagged him, but halfway through the season, they’ll be kicking themselves. His numbers aren’t eye-popping, but they’re consistent, and I think he actually underperformed last year while still doing well. He had a 41% hard contact rate, decent LD/GB/FB numbers with a nearly 20% HR/FB rate. His contact numbers actually started getting better last year. And one telling thing is that his BABIP was 20 points lower than his career average but he had the same AVG as 2018 while actually having a much better season in every other metric. I think he suffered from being in a super deep lineup in Minnesota, but this season, he’ll be getting significant playing time in Detroit. And while he is on a much worse team this year, I think (especially in a shortened season) he will be very productive.
Do not draft Yuli Gurriel. Looking at the data, what I see is that he grossly outperformed his metrics last year. Sure, he may have evolved as a hitter, but he may also have benefited from cheating (let’s face it). If you look into his batting splits, you’ll notice that he historically struggles to hit lefties. Some other interesting splits are that he has 15 total away home runs the last 2 seasons as opposed to 29 at home (I wonder why). Most outlets project him for about 20 HRs this year, in a normal season, as opposed to the 30 he hit last year. Looking at his advanced metrics, what you see is a hard contact rate of 38%, lower than his medium contact rate. Although his contact numbers have gone up each of the last 3 yrs, and his swing and miss rate has gone down, he could be benefiting from evolving as a player…or from cheating. The thing is, I don’t want to find out which it is with him on my team. In a deeper league, he might be someone’s starting first baseman, but I wouldn’t want to have him and end up with him struggling. I’d also be less inclined to think his production was a result of cheating if his sabermetric data showed legit production, but it doesn’t.
Second Base
Do draft Starlin Castro. He had arguably his best season last year, and did it with the Marlins. I’m interested to see how he performs in a better lineup with the Nats in 2020. His 2019 numbers are excellent and paint a picture of an evolving hitter that is reaching his power potential at age 30. He had a 41% Hard Contact rate, and while his GB rate was closer to 50% than I would normally like, he pushed across a good amount of home runs and had a decent 12% HR/FB rate. His plate discipline and contact numbers from 2019 show a much improved eye at the plate from previous years, and combined with the hard contact, it shows his power is legit. In 2020, he’ll have Kevin Long as a batting coach, who has worked wonders with Nats batters. I expect Castro to be a sneaky good pick in drafts for 2020.
Do not draft Cavan Biggio. There is a lot of hype around this kid, but his numbers from last year scare me. He was a high BABIP, low AVG player from last year – his batting average was only .234. Sometimes this can be a result of bad luck, but in his case, his low average was a result of a 28% strikeout rate. That means means nearly 1/3 of his time at the plate, he’s striking out. One good sign is his 16% BB rate, which could make him a decent late pick in an OBP lead. Some other data that makes me want to stay away are a Hard Contact rate of 39% and a Medium Contact rate of 48%, the fact that he is a lefty that hits into the shift 50% of the time, a 47% chase rate (meaning he’s swinging at 47% of pitches outside of the zone – so plate discipline is not there), the fact that he is not hitting Curveballs/Sliders/Changeups. He is someone I’d avoid this year, but probably pick up next year. Biggio is kind of a mixed bag, and I think it will be another year or so before he puts it together. Stay away this year unless you get him REALLY late and he’s filling out a bench spot.
Third Base
Do draft Evan Longoria. Trust me! His numbers are there. Yes he is on the wrong side of 30. No he probably won’t play 150 games. But he is reliable for the most part and still does have value. I wouldn’t take him as my starting 3B, but I think he could be valuable in your corner infield slot or on your bench. What I see is a great Hard Contact rate (43%), with really good LD/GB/FB numbers (21%/41%/37%), and a 15% HR/FB rate. His .297 BABIP is in line with his career numbers, and reflects that you’re looking at probably a .250-.260 batting average, which isn’t great but also isn’t terrible. You can also see that he still has a good eye at the plate. He walked more last year than he has in the previous 5 seasons. He’s definitely worth a shot in the mid rounds.
Do not draft Yandy Diaz. This is a player that got a lot of hype last year from the fantasy community. He spent some time last year on the Injured List. He was playing for Cleveland, but now he is on a Tampa team that has a ton of depth and competition at 1B/3B. Diaz hits the ball hard (42% Hard contact rate), but he was not turning those hard hits into good hits. This is reflected in his LD/GB/FB numbers (17%/50%/32%). His contact numbers all got worse last year from the year before due to swinging at higher percentage of pitches outside the zone. He also made contact on 10% fewer of those swings. This goes the same for pitches inside of zone. Diaz also took 12% more first pitch strikes, and his swinging strike percent went up 3% to 9%. Potentially switching from CLE to TB last season changed his approach to something he didn’t do well. I don’t like that. I also don’t like the idea that he is in a position battle in Tampa and that it is crowded with good players. I don’t like his swing and miss numbers. And I don’t like the lack of power. He’s going to go higher than you like. Avoid him.
Short Stop
Do draft Paul DeJong. The power is legit and I’m a fan, even though the average last year wasn’t pretty (although you could argue it was due to bad luck). His hard contact rate shows he was making great contact (41%), and he had really excellent LD/GB/FB numbers too (18%/37%/44%), while turning in a 15% HR/FB rate. His contact on pitches inside and outside of the zone improved last year from the year before. I think one of the most telling of his stats is a .259 BABIP, which is 40 points lower than his career BABIP. This is where I’m going to argue that he was a victim of bad luck. All of his peripheral numbers point to good contact, improving discipline, and production. I expect him to continue to improve in 2020, while experiencing some positive regression. Look for his average to get closer to .250 in the coming season.
Do not draft Elvis Andrus. If you need stolen bases, meaning you have nobody else with stolen bases, then consider drafting him, but I’m avoiding him. He has had 1 really good season, and that’s it. I do not like that he only walks 5% of the time – that’s terrible. He is a career .275 hitter, which isn’t bad, but when you mix that with lack of power stats, he’s really a 1 category player – 2 at most. He’s changed something in his swing – his Hard Contact rate has increased the last few years. One really bad problem is that he’s gotten worse every year on hitting nearly every type of pitch. This could be a telling sign that he can’t keep up. Mostly, I just don’t see him producing very much on a team that isn’t very good. There are better options out there at any point in the draft.
Outfield
Do draft Adam Eaton. He finally had a healthy season in Washington, and the results were excellent. He had promising starts in both of his first two seasons in DC, but last year he stayed healthy and put together a great season. He had a career high in home runs, and stole 15 bases. Although his walk rate went down slightly, so did his strikeout rate. His contact on pitches inside and outside of the zone also improved – it shows he’s being selective and that the Kevin Long (Nats hitting coach) effect is real. His Hard Contact rate of 34% was a career high. He definitely changed something with his launch angle as well, hitting fly balls 40% of the time and turning 8.2% of them into home runs. I was jealous the whole season of the guy who drafted Eaton, and he’s someone I’ll definitely look for this year.
Do not draft Andrew Benintendi. It pains me to list him here. I’ve drafted him the last 2 years hoping his potential would play out, but it seems like he is what his stats suggest – an average player. Fantasy baseball experts preach that he’s a 20/20 hitter (20 home runs and 20 steals), but he has reached 20/20 only once, in 2017. In 2019, his BB% went down from 10-9%, and his K% went up from 16-22%. His BABIP was actually better in 2019 than in 2018, so the lack of production is not related to bad luck, but rather it is related to bad contact. His Hard Contact rate was 38%, and while he had decent LD/GB/FB numbers (21%/38%/40%), his HR/FB rate was only 7.9%. This shows he was hitting the ball hard last year, but he hit too many balls up in the air and didn’t hit enough line drives. And when he did put the ball in the air, he wasn’t hitting them hard enough to turn them into home runs. Overall he has decent contact percentages, but as a player, he is nothing special, at least not as special as people thought he was going to be.
Starting Pitcher
Do draft Sonny Gray. I’m giving away one of my secret weapons and sleeper targets for this year. Gray had a career year last year, and I think he’s only improving. He struck out 10.5 batters per 9 innings, a career high. He also had a 2.87 ERA, which is superb. His FIP and xFIP suggest he should have been closer to a 3.50 ERA pitcher, and a .255 BABIP may reflect that. But, his walks were down, his HR/FB rate was above the league average, and he stranded nearly 80% of runners, all things that bode well for him. Some other positives – 50% of hits he gave up were on the ground, and he struck out 28% of the batters he faced. This is a 200 strikeout pitcher that you can get in the middle rounds of your draft. He could end up with a 3.00 ERA, or it could be closer to 4.00. Either way, I’m looking for Sonny Gray, and I’m willing to reach a little bit.
Do not draft Blake Snell. With Snell, the potential is there, but so is potential for injury and potential for being erratic. He walks a LOT of batters. He had a 3.36 BB/9 in 2019. He was a victim of some bad luck, which you can see in his .343 BABIP and 15% HR/FB rate (the league avg is 11/12%). Things like a high BABIP and a high HR/FB rate will spike a pitcher’s ERA, and that’s what we saw with Snell last year. His FIP and xFIP said he should have been closer to a mid-3 ERA pitcher, and this is the same for his SIERA (another interesting stat I’ll get into in the future). Another bad sign is that he didn’t strand runners on base last year because he gave up too many homers and didn’t get batters to hit enough grounders. Sure, he could turn out to be 2018 Blake Snell, with 1.89 ERA, but that year his BABIP was super low (which meant he was getting lucky), and his HR/FB rate was lower than the league avg, which suggests he should have done worse that year as his FIP and xFIP suggest. He should have had a 2 or 3 era that year. He’s going too high for me in drafts. If he was the 3rd pitcher I drafted, I’d be happy, but he’s going to go too early for me to be interested. I’ll wait for someone else.
Next Week, I’ll round out my hitting stats with Chase Rate and batting discipline data. Thanks for reading.
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