For me, draft prep is a multi step process that starts early in the offseason, as soon as projections start popping up across different outlets. Some of my go-to websites for offseason prep include ESPN’s Fantasy Baseball Projections, as well as anything by Eric Karabell or Tristan Cockcroft. I also am constantly on Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference, scouring for any piece of data that will give me an edge on draft day. Here is my process, my strategy, and my first mock drafts, along with an evaluation.
Step 1
The very first thing that I do is I go back and look at last year’s stats. I don’t only look at the surface stats, I’m looking at hard contact rate, HR/FB/GB ratios, contact percent, and BABIP, all of which I’ve written about in past posts. I’m going to Fangraphs to find all this information. You can do this a few ways. I like to choose from the batting and pitching leaders at the top of the page, and then sort through that way. To see advanced stats on an individual player, all you have to do is click on their name. Here’s how to find that:
I also like to use Baseball-reference to check out batting splits – home and away, how’d a batter do at different spots in the order, etc. I’m looking for a few things as I research, and basically I’m trying to answer these questions. Who is hitting the ball hard? Are they hitting it hard and producing good hits? Are they getting lucky, unlucky, or are they matching what they’ve done before? Are they more likely to be better or worse this year (based on the lineup, new team, injury, etc.)? Did they take a step in the right direction or wrong direction with contact? Basically, I want to decide if I trust what a player did last year and then decide how I think they’ll do this year. But again, this is the first step in a long process. A sneaky player to watch this year is Starlin Castro. He had excellent metrics last year, and improved in a lot of areas – specifically hard contact rate, and contact percent. I think he is a sleeper this year at 2B because he’ll be undervalued. He played for the Marlins last year, so he was off the radar, and is on the Nationals this year, a team that hasn’t been getting much attention. He has a hitting coach that has helped Juan Soto become one of the best players in the game, and has a lineup in which he’ll produce one way or another.
Finally, I’ll start a spreadsheet, organized by position and tiers, and I’ll start plugging in players in an order that I would draft them. For example, tier 1 for my catchers includes Realmuto, Sanchez, Grandal, and Garver in that order because those are the best players at that position, in my opinion, based on the stats that I have chosen to focus on as most important. Tier 2 for catchers includes Contreras, Perez, Ramos, and a few others. These are guys who I like, but aren’t the absolute best. Not every position will have the same amount of players as another position in the same tier. For example, my tier 1 for second basemen only includes Jose Altuve because I believe he is in a class of his own as a hitter for the position. It’s up to you to organize them how you want, remembering that as you continue your research, it’s likely you’ll switch a lot of these guys around.
Step 2 – Batters
Read. A lot. And wait. Projections will come out. I use a mix of them. I check out ZiPS and The Bat on Fangraphs, and I use the ESPN projections to help me finalize who I like the most, who I will not draft, and in what order I want to sort my players. This might take a few days. Take your time with it. You’ll want to do this as soon as possible to give yourself enough time to look through each player, make notes, and mock draft.
Once I’ve combed through the projections and have analyzed the underlying metrics, I begin to make decisions on players that I’m going to target, players that I will not draft, and players who I think are under the radar – my “sleepers.” In a lot of drafts, the players who you choose will depend on a lot of things – is it a keeper draft, what pick do you have, who is on the board, how many teams are in your league, etc. My league, for example, is an 8 team keeper league. We have 1 catcher, 5 outfielders, 7 pitchers, 5 bench, and 2 IL spots. And each team gets to keep 4 of their players from the previous year. It’s not a typical structure. It’s important you know what type of league, the roster construction, the rules, etc. We are also a snake draft vs. an auction. That makes a difference in draft strategy too.
This year, I’m keeping Bellinger, Yelich, Bogaerts, and Trea Turner. That will impact who I draft early. My first pick is likely to either be a 1B, 3B, or 2B player. Some players I’m absolutely targeting, based on data I’ve analyzed, are Anthony Rizzo, Gleyber Torres, and Kris Bryant. These are players high on my draft board, but are also guys who are high on a lot of draft boards.
One thing I also like to do, as a second step in sorting my players, to help me make decisions on draft day, is to assign each player a color on my spreadsheet. You can choose whichever colors you want. I have a key on the spreadsheet as well in case I forget which color means what. Green for me means I like them and would draft them. Red means I will not draft them. Yellow is a sleeper, blue is a player being kept on another team, and orange is a player kept by me. On draft day, I use this to help me make quick decisions. As players are chosen, I delete them from the list.
Another thing you should do is make notes. For my batters, I’m looking for players who will produce stats across the board. Sometimes, like this year, I’m going to focus on players who hit for power, because generally they are at least a 3 category player (Runs, HRs, and RBI). But I’ll use an asterisk to mark a player who I think will be at least a 20/20 player (20 home runs, 20 steals), or who I think will get close. One player like that is Fernando Tatis Jr. This year, I’m not too worried about players who hit for average. If I can get players to fill up 3 columns in the batting category each week, that works for me. Then I need pitchers who will fill up at least 3 columns, and I’m putting myself in a good position each week to win.
Someone on my do not draft list is Jean Segura. Yes, he hits for average, but that’s about it. His hard contact numbers are not very good, and he grounds out A LOT – 50% of the balls he makes contact on are grounders. DO YOUR RESEARCH!
Step 2 – Pitchers
I’ve been talking a lot about sorting batters. I also sort my pitchers too, but I do it a little differently. Later this season, I’ll focus on how I analyze pitching data and what stats I focus on to help me make pitching decisions. My pitching tiers are divided by projected ERA. I have players who are projected for <2.70, 2.71-3.30, 3.31-3.60, 3.60-3.90, and 3.91-4.20. Generally, I’m not drafting a pitcher with a higher projected ERA than 4.20.
I go through the exact same process as hitters when doing research. What did they do last year? Can it be repeated? What factors, if any, will change their output for this year? Etc. I’ll look at the data and projections, and make my decisions. I’ll use my color coding to sort them and make decisions. I use the same process with starters and relievers (they are in separate sections on my spreadsheet).
As with batters, I’m looking for pitchers who will produce in multiple categories. My league uses Quality Starts instead of Wins. I’m also making notes of which pitchers are likely to strike out 200+ batters, and I’ll use an asterisk to mark them. Sometimes I’ll choose a pitcher who I think will strike out a lot of players at the expense of ERA, if I think they’ll also get me some QS. A great example of this from last year, who I also like this year, is Lance Lynn. Knowing this, though, I’ll also have to balance it out with low ERA pitchers. And depending on how the draft shakes out, I either want 2 or 3 Starters with 200+ projected K’s, or if I don’t get what I want, I may shift my focus to stocking up on relievers. The reason behind targeting relievers is that if you can get a couple of the top RPs, you can expect to win 3 categories each week – Saves, ERA, and WHIP. It’s a risk, but if you can combine that strategy with drafting power hitters, you’re likely locking down 6 categories out of 10 each week, and putting yourself in a good position to be a fantasy baseball champion.
Step 3 – Mock Draft
Whatever website you use, they should have a place where you can mock draft. My league is on ESPN, so I use their mock draft lobby. It’s a great place to practice your strategy, see what works and what doesn’t, and plan out what you’re going to do on draft day. It’s a little difficult with a keeper league, but do what you can. Make sure to practice with your spreadsheet, or whatever you’re using for research. Here’s how my first mock draft looked (my first four slots would have been my keepers, so I had to select a few different but similar players to my keepers):
- OF Yelich
- SS Trea Turner
- OF Harper (instead of Bellinger)
- SS Torres (instead of Bogaerts)
- 1B Rizzo
- SP Bieber
- 2B Hiura
- OF Rosario
- SP Castillo
- SP Giolito
- RP Hand
- OF Soler
- RP Smith
- RP Rogers
- 3B Sano
- SP Rodriguez
- RP Bradley
- OF Tucker
- RP Anderson
- C Contreras
- SP Ray
- 1B Walker
- 3B Seager
- 3B Dozier
- OF Renfroe
First, I love my pitching. It would definitely be the core of my team. Each pitcher I have is projected for 200+ strikeouts. I like that a lot. They’re all guys that are green on my spreadsheet. I didn’t take anyone on my No-Draft List (which will be my next post).
I drafted a lot of relievers, which is a potential strategy I’ll employ this year to try to lock down 3 pitching categories each week.
My batting is the part of my team where I feel weakest here. I’d like more pop in the outfield, and may end up drafting an outfielder a little earlier next time. I also don’t feel very confident with Sano as my 3B starter. He’s been up and down from the minors for the last few years, so that’s a spot I’ll try to fix in my next draft. My strategy of drafting power bats or 20/20 players was mostly employed, but what I think I learned is that I need to get the bats first. There will be good pitching out there later.
So, this is my draft prep process. It’s extensive, it’s thorough, but it works.
This season, I’ll be covering the following topics in my blog:
Do-Not Draft List
More Mock Draft Analysis
Draft Analysis
How to Make a Good Trade
Pitching Stats to Look For (and I’ll make several posts covering various stats)
Thanks for reading.
Taylor's Fantasy Baseball Blog 